FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Reports on Economic Indicators

Russia: Manufacturing PMI plunges to record low

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:20:31 GMT

This morning data showed that Russian manufacturing PMI in November dropped to an all-time low in its 11-year history - see following charts. Hence the index's headline reading fell to 39.8 from 46.4 in October. The sub-indices show a broad-based contraction. New orders are falling fast, output is down and employment down, while stocks of finished goods are rising. The only good news was that the survey indicated that inflationary pressures are abating somewhat with output prices dropping for

China: Plunge in PMIs indicates sharp deceleration

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:55:39 GMT

Both of China's manufacturing PMIs plunged again in November, indicating that industrial activity is currently slowing sharply in China. This is in line with other recent Asian indicators including Friday's industrial production figures from Japan and overnight export figures from South Korea, all of which indicate that the pace of deterioration in industrial activity is likely be extraordinary on a global scale in Q4 08. Details: The development in the Manufacturing PMI from the National

Denmark: Unemployment now rising

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:46:45 GMT

The unemployment rate rose in October from 1.6% to 1.7%. Thus the expected turnaround in the labour market has become a reality. Advertised job vacancies have been falling sharply for some time, and now the turnaround in the economic cycle is also having an impact on unemployment.

USA: Consumer Credit Weakening Amid Economic Downturn

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wachovia) — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:00:32 GMT

Consumer credit is much harder to come by today for even the strongest of credits. Home equity lines have been scaled back and in a few cases, even credit card limits have been cut. At the same time, students are weighing limited education financing options, and auto loans are much more difficult to obtain. With the economy in recession, worries about job security are stifling the urge to spend. Rising unemployment and faltering income growth are adding to consumers’ uneasiness, sending

South Africa: Inflation drops further

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:48:31 GMT

Statistics South Africa today released CPIX inflation for October. As we expected, CPIX inflation, which excludes mortgage interest payments and is targeted by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), decelerated to 12.4% y/y in October, down from 13.0% in September. The drop was slightly more than the consensus expectation, which was looking for an inflation figure of 12.5% y/y. Nonetheless, inflation in South Africa remains stubbornly high, well above the SARB´s official target range of 3-6%,

US: Recession Probability - Recession to Persist for Next Six Months

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wachovia) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:05:54 GMT

Our recession model puts the latest probability of recession at 94 percent. There is certainly overwhelming evidence that the domestic economy continues in recession mode as both consumer spending and business investment have weakened. Key model inputs such as leading indicators and employment signal continued problems ahead.

Currencies Soar as Fed Announces More Stimulus, GDP Not as Bad as Feared

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading))

The US is now in a technical recession but that has not stopped the equity and currency market from rallying. The GDP number was not as bad as the market had feared but what really drove the markets higher was the Federal Reserve's new Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). Both the outgoing and incoming Presidents are stepping on the gas and that is helping to restore investor confidence. President Elect Barack Obama has formed his Economic Team and is outlining his Economic

Hungary: Central bank cut the base rate by 50bp to 11.00%

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 08:23:42 GMT

The monetary council surprised the markets today, by cutting the base rate by 50bp, to 11.00%. After the emergency 300bp rate hike (from 8.50% to 11.50%) carried out in October, when protecting the forint from further falls became the top priority for the central bank, the most important question was when the central bank would be able to “take back” from this. Although the fact, that the fundamental state of the county suggested the start of rate cuts sooner or later, we – in line with the

Worst Ifo since 1993

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S)

Overview : The German Ifo disappointed yet again. The climate index dropped sharply from 90.2 to 85.8 in November (consensus 87.7, DB 87.0). It consequently declined for the sixth month in a row and it is now at the lowest since February 1993. Germany is already in recession and Ifo signals a severe weakening of the economy over the coming months. The decline is comparable to what was seen in 1973 and 1992. Then the economy faced serious recessions. The Ifo expectations index fell to the

Sun is Shining on Wall St But Watch Out for GDP Numbers

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading))

This morning, the sun is shining on New York City and on Wall Street. President-elect Barack Obama was one of the few people that could have restored confidence in the financial markets through the appointment of a Cabinet members that the market trusts and a clearer plan of action for tackling the economic crisis. On Friday, his appointments for Treasury Secretary and the Secretary of State were leaked, sending stocks soaring and according to the Washington Post, Obama and leading Democrats

Euroland: Very weak PMI should spur ECB to cut rates dramatically

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:17:32 GMT

Overview: Yet again, flash PMI for Euroland fell unexpectedly sharply from the previous all time low, and our below-consensus estimate proved too optimistic. This is clearly worrying - the composite PMI is now signalling close to -0.4% growth q/q (-1.6% annualised). It is clear that Euroland is facing a recession that will last well into 2009.

Expect Non-Farm Payrolls to Double Dip

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading)) — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:28:55 GMT

Every single day we have more reason to believe that the US unemployment rate will break 8 percent next year. Jobless claims rose to a 16 year high last week of 542k, driving the US dollar lower against the Japanese Yen. Continuing claims rose to 4.012 million, the highest level in close to 26 years. The most powerful aspect of today's report is the fact that the Veteran's Day Holiday usually pushes jobless claims down which suggests that if there wasn't a holiday, jobless claims could easily

USA: Consumer Price Index - October 2008

insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund) — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:50:04 GMT

The October estimate of consumer price index declined -1.0% (-0.961%) m/m and was up 3.7% y/y. The core ex-food and energy estimate fell -0.1%(-0.071%) m/m and is up 2.2%. The ex-food estimate saw a sharp drop of -1.2% m/m and the ex-energy component was flat for the month. Energy prices dropped -8.6% and prices in the services sector were also flat for the month.

USA: Core inflation declines

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 08:19:18 GMT

Overview: US consumer prices dropped 1% m/m in October - the largest monthly decline ever - driven by sharply lower energy prices. Annual headline inflation now stands at 3.7% down from 4.9% in September. Core inflation is now negative, with core CPI falling 0.961% on the month, taking the annual core inflation rate to 2.2%. Fading demand, lower unit labour costs and the plunge in commodity prices thus seem to start affecting core consumer prices.

Risk Trades Rallies on Foreign Demand for US Treasuries, but Watch out for Paulson and Bernanke

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading))

Despite the turmoil in the US financial markets, foreign demand for US securities remain robust, particularly since the Treasury's International Capital flow report was for September, the month that Lehman collapsed. TIC Report Explains Dollar Rally Demand was particularly strong for US Treasuries and equities but foreigners dumped corporate bonds on the fear of default risk. As a testament to China's rising economic power, they have now surpassed Japan as the largest holder of US debt. In

Japan: It will get worse before it gets better

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:46:10 GMT

The Japanese economy has without doubt entered a sharp contraction, although GDP in Q3 declined only 0.1% q/q (Consensus: 0.0%, Danske Bank: -0.1%) after dropping 0.9% q/q in the previous quarter (revised down from earlier reported 0.7% q/q contraction). The Q3 figures were broadly in line with our expectations, with the weakness mostly driven by weaker net exports and corporate capital expenditures, while both private consumption and residential investments showed some resilience (see chart

USA: Massive pull back in consumption

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 15:25:48 GMT

Overview: October retail sales showed yet another disappointment with a decline of 2.8% m/m (DB: - 2.5%, Cons: -2.2%). Excluding autos, retail sales fell 2.2%, adding to the decline of 0.5% in September (revised from -0.6%). Core retail sales (ex autos and gasoline) fell 0.5% m/m the third month in a row core sales declined. The data adds to the picture of a US consumer under severe strain and points to a decline in Q4 consumption of 3.5-4% (q/q AR). This comes on top of the consumption

Retail Sales Post Record Low

insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)

Advance retail sales for the month of October declined -2.8% m/m and are down -3.3% y/y/. The core ex-autos estimate fell -2.2% m/m and is up 1.7% y/y. On a monthly basis ex-gas was down -1.5%, ex-autos and building materials have fallen -2.4%, ex-autos and gas -0.5% and ex-good service -3.1%. On a three month annualized basis sales in the retail and food service sector have fallen -10.9% with the ex-auto estimate down -7.4%. Inside the data sales were down just about across the board. The sale

Croatia: October CPI & 2Q LFS Unemployment

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:11:52 GMT

2Q LFS unemployment rate declined to 7.9% The 2Q labor force survey showed solid labor market performance, as the unemployment rate declined a robust 2.1pp q/q to 7.9%, down 1.2pp y/y. The activity rate increased with respect to 1Q, by 0.3pp to 48.6%, while the employment rate increased by 1.3pp to 44.8% (-26ths unemployed). The figures were mainly in line with expectations, as the official monthly figures supported strong labor market trends. Given the seasonal pattern, 3Q should show some

Slovakia: GDP flash for 3Q08

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 11:41:55 GMT

GDP growth reached 7.1% in line with expectations - Today, the Slovak Statistical Office released a flash GDP estimate for the 3Q08. The annual economic growth reached 7.1%, meeting the market and our expectations . After seasonal adjustment the growth stood at 7.6%. The final figure will be released on December 4; however, the second estimate usually differs only marginally from the preliminary one. - The growth structure will be released along with the final figure at the beginning of

Hungary: GDP slowed to 0.8% y/y in 3Q08

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:25:22 GMT

According to the CSO’s flash estimate, GDP rose just 0.8% y/y in the third quarter of 2008 - remaining well below expectations - after the 2% y/y seen in 2Q08. Taking the calendar effect into consideration, the economy grew by just 0.7% y/y in 3Q08. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP declined 0.1%. The CSO indicated that the performance of the manufacturing industry and the construction industry pulled down the figure, while exports slowed. The breakdown of the figures will be available

Jobless Claims Highlight Seismic Challenges Facing US Economy

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading))

When the labor market is in trouble, the US economy is in trouble. Jobless claims rose 516k last week to the highest level since September 2001. The claims for unemployment benefits was only surpassed in the 2.5 weeks following 9/11. Extrapolating the jobless claims data to non-farm payrolls and we could see non-farm payrolls top 300k before the end of the year. In September 2001, the last time jobless claims were at current levels, non-farm payrolls dropped 244k and in October of that same

China: Risk of a hard landing is increasing

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 10:30:54 GMT

Growth in industrial production in October slowed sharply to 8.2% y/y (consensus: 11.1% y/y, Danske Bank: 10.3% y/y) from 11.4% y/y in September. Weakness is most evident within heavy industries. Production of crude steel and steel products contracted by 17.0% y/y and 12.4% y/y, respectively (see chart 2). Overall production of building materials remains very weak, with production of cement up only 1.1% y/y. This underlines that the recent slowdown in China is not just due to weaker exports

Slovakia: October CPI Inflation

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 10:17:07 GMT

As expected, CPI inflation slowed down in October - October CPI inflation slowed down from 5.4% y/y to 5.1% y/y, in line with our estimate (the market expected 5.0-5.1%). The main reason for slowdown was the base effect, as food prices grew significantly this time last year, while they stagnated this October. - On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.4% in October . Favourable impacts included decline of fuel prices (by more than 3 %, while even more significant fall should be seen in November).

China: Trade surplus surges to all-time high on slowing imports

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:25:21 GMT

The Chinese trade surplus surged to USD 35.2bn in October 'the biggest monthly surplus ever' mainly on the back on a sharp decline in import growth (from 21.3% y/y to 15.6% y/y). One reason for the slowdown in im-ports is, of course, the fall in commodity prices. That said, our calculations indicate that import volume growth has slowed sharply and that, in October this year, import volumes were lower than in the same month of last year (see chart 2). This view is supported by the data released

Lithuania: Inflation slows marginally

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 11:36:47 GMT

Lithuanian inflation fell to 10.5% y/y (1.0% m/m) in October from 11.0% y/y (0.5% m/m) in September. We had expected a decline to 10.3% y/y (0.8% m/m). As was broadly expected, the jump in heating prices (up 26.4% m/m) had the greatest impact on monthly consumer price changes. However, as in the other Baltic states, a significant base effect and declining global oil prices help pull inflation down somewhat.

Hungary: CPI inflation - October

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 10:05:22 GMT

CPI slowed to 5.1% y/y in October Consumer prices rose 0.2% y/y in October. Thus, the 12-month CPI inflation rate further slowed to 5.1% (from the 5.7% published for September). The y/y figure proved to be lower than both my expectation of 5.3% and the market consensus of 5.2%. Prices of food were up 0.3% compared to September, within which seasonal food prices increased by 3.5% m/m. As expected, prices of clothes increased substantially, by 4.9% m/m, based on the seasonality. Fuel prices

Hungary: Inflation surprises on the downside

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:58:47 GMT

Hungarian inflation declined to 5.1% y/y in October - down from 5.7% y/y in September and below the consensus expectation of 5.2% y/y. The inflation data is slightly positive for the Hungarian fixed income markets, but we do not expect any major market reaction to the data going forward.

China: Inflation is no longer an issue

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:38:12 GMT

Consumer price inflation in October dropped to 4.0% y/y (consensus: 4.2%, DB: 4.1%) from 4.6% y/y in September broadly in line with our expectations. However, continued normalisation in food prices contributed less than we expected to the decline in headline inflation. Food price inflation declined only modestly to 8.5% y/y from 9.7% y/y in September. Instead, the easing inflationary pressure has become more broad based. Excluding food CPI inflation declined significantly to 1.6% y/y from 2.0%

Latvia: Inflation slowed less than expected

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:06:45 GMT

Today, the Latvian statistics office announced inflation data for October: inflation slowed marginally less than we expected, decelerating to 13.8% y/y (1.2% m/m) in October versus our forecast of 13.4% y/y (0.8% m/m) and a 14.9% y/y rise in September. The rise in heat energy and natural gas prices (by 16.5% m/m and 68.9% m/m respectively) had the greatest impact on the monthly consumer price change. However, a significant base effect and the decline in the global oil price is helping to pull

Denmark: Inflation plummets

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:14:22 GMT

As expected, the inflation rate dropped to 3.7% in October from 4.2% in September (see Kraftigste infla-tionsfald siden 1990. Especially energy and food prices have fallen, with food prices down 0.3% on the month and transport prices down 2.3%. Moreover, the sharp rise in prices exactly a year ago helps to pull inflation down now.

Swedish Oct CPI: Correction to our forecast

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:08:26 GMT

We have made quite a drastic change to our call for October CPI, revising it up from -0.2% m/m (3.6% y/y) to 0.1% m/m (3.9% y/y). This is because we have estimated mortgage costs for owner-occupied housing incorrectly. Hence, instead of a significant decline in mortgage costs, there is likely to be a marked rise in October.

Hungary: Fitch rating downgrade

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:43:53 GMT

Fitch cut Hungary’s current rating from BBB+ to BBB After cutting the rating outlook from stable to negative in the middle of October, this morning the Fitch credit rating agency announced that they cut the rating of Hungary’s sovereign debt from BBB+ to BBB, with stable outlook. The agency said that in the case of Hungary “the downgrade reflects the severity of the recession and post-crisis correction to macroeconomic imbalances and associated risks to the public finances and from foreign

US Unemployment Rate Hits 14 Year Highs, But Rate Speculation Drives FX and Equities

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading)) — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:18:59 GMT

US UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 14 YEAR HIGHS, BUT RATE SPECULATION DRIVES FX AND EQUITIES Half a million jobs were lost in the US economy over the past 2 months, driving the unemployment rate to a 14 year high. Even though October non-farm payrolls fell short of our -300k expectation, the 240k drop and the revision from -159k to - 284k for the month of September is just as pessimistic. The US labor market is in a recession and the latest numbers confirm that. However equities actually rallied on the

USA: Labour market in downward spiral

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:10:05 GMT

Overview: The recessionary dynamics are now taking a firm hold on the labour market. The employment report revealed a job loss of -240K (DB: -210K, Consensus: -200K) in October, but also carried net revisions of -179K for August and September. Unemployment continued to climb, reaching 6.5% (DB: 6.3%, Consensus: 6.3%) in October, up from 6.1% in September. Details: This pace of job losses only occurs in recessions. Over the past three months, private payrolls have declined by an average of 215K

Hungary: Rating downgrade

Rainer.Singer@erstebank.at (Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 15:35:51 GMT

Moody’s cut Hungary’s current rating from A2 to A3 This afternoon, Moody’s credit rating agency announced that they cut Hungary's current rating from A2 to A3, with negative outlook. So far, the Moody’s has not been as active in changing the ratings and outlooks as the other two credit rating agencies (Fitch and the S&P). Thus, the current A3 rating is still one notch higher than the BBB+ ratings of the Fitch and the S&P. Taking the earlier two-notch difference into consideration,

October Non Farm Payrolls Collapse

insights@merkinvestments.com (Merk Hard Currency Fund)

The October estimate of non-farm payrolls saw firms reduce payrolls by -240K for the month and the rate of unemployment jump sharply to 6.5%. Revisions made by Labor Department subtract an additional -179K over the past two months. The decline in October's payroll tally has reduced employment by 1.2mln during the first 10 months of 2008, with over half of that total occurring over the past 90 days. The household survey saw a decline of -297K, which is above its three-month average of -287K.

NFPs Will Not Put a Permanent Stop to the Dollar's Rise - Job Losses Mount, Unemployment Rate Hits 14 Year High

info@gftforex.com (GFT (Global Forex Trading)) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:02:38 GMT

There is nothing good about today's labor market report - between September and October, 524k jobs were lost in the US economy. Even though last month's job losses were worse than the market expected (-240k), it was not as bad as everyone had feared. But if you count the big downward revision to the September number, the labor market is in its weakest shape in the past 5 years. What is the most shocking however is the fact that the unemployment rate jumped to the highest level in 14 years.

Latvia: sharp drop in GDP

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 13:35:29 GMT

Today the Latvian statistics office announced its flash estimates of GDP growth for Q3 08. GDP dropped by 4.2% y/y in the quarter compared with a 0.1% y/y growth rate in Q2 08. The result is significantly below our forecast of a 2.5% y/y contraction. This trend is likely to confirm our expectation that the GDP decline in 2008 could be more than previously expected (0.8% y/y) and could reach 1.7% y/y on average, indicating mainly a more pronounced contraction in domestic factors. Looking ahead,

Estonia: Encouraging downtrend in inflation

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 10:15:01 GMT

Consumer price inflation figures for October released by the Estonia Statistics office show that inflation decelerated to 9.8% y/y (0.4% m/m) from 10.5% y/y in September. The outcome was significantly lower then our forecast of 10.2% y/y. Consumer price inflation continues to ease after peaking at 11.4% y/y in June 2008. The monthly drop in prices in October was primarily driven by the decline in food and fuel prices. As expected, energy prices continue to be the main driving force behind