FXstreet.com: Fundamental

Today's Live Show

trader@allthingsforex.com (AllThingsForex) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:45:33 GMT

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments, research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: Will negative jobs report accelerate USD strength? We analyze this week's economic reports and recent trend developments, we discuss a new forecast from UBS, and prepare for the trading

U.S Market Update

jessica@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:34:30 GMT

- The Thanksgiving stock rally is screeching to a halt this morning as US equity indices open down and head lower. Risk aversion has returned to prominence pushing Treasury yields to yet new historic lows in some cases. The euro and cable continue to suffer while the yen is being bid up. The US ISM Manufacturing data is weighing on trade, hitting fresh 26-year lows, with the prices paid component hitting lows last seen in 1949. Front-month crude and metals are weaker, with oil below $50 as

Currency Currents

jcrooks@blackswantrading.com (Black Swan Capital) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:40:58 GMT

Key News Chinese Manufacturing Contracts by Record, Adds to Risk of Economic Slump (Bloomberg) Switzerland Feels Iceland's Pain With Banks Teetering on Vanishing Credit (Bloomberg) Manufacturing Contracts From China to Britain as Crisis Enters 17th Month (Bloomberg) Quotable “To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson FX Trading – China, China, China ... A Nightmare in the Making? Our

OPEC Holiday Wish

info@alaron.com (Alaron) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:35:15 GMT

OPEC has holiday wishes as well and it appears they are wishing for higher energy prices this winter. But sometimes wishes can’t come true. That's about all that came out of the emergency OPEC meeting; futile hopes and dreams. Not to mention a little tension growing from those countries that might be overproducing their quota, oh my. Not a very happy holiday season for members of our own little energy cartel. As prices keep falling, tensions keep rising as Gulf State producers were demanding

The latest audio outlook

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wachovia) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:00:07 GMT

This week, Wachovia's Chief Economist Mark Vitner discusses the latest economic news. Click on the image to listen it: To listen the last audios, please go to Wachovia Audio's page. .

The Yen Without Qualities

info@fxsol.com (FX Solutions) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:40:36 GMT

In December 1989 the Nikkei Index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed at 38,915.87. Nineteen years later it is at 8,512.27. The current Bank of Japan overnight call rate is 0.3%, the lowest central bank rate in the industrialized world. This benchmark Japanese interest rate has been at 0.5% or lower since 1996, including more than five years of zero rate policy while the Bank of Japan was fighting incipient deflation. Two straight quarters of negative growth this year have put Japan into an

The British pound depreciated by 2% against the US dollar after the release of dismal UK manufacturing

sam.bullard@wachovia.com (Wachovia) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:32:57 GMT

Overnight, the British pound depreciated by 2% against the US dollar after the release of dismal UK manufacturing and mortgage lending data, which increased the expectation that the BOE will ease rates this coming Thursday. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both fell as a result of declining local equities in addition to the high likelihood that both central banks will aggressively ease interest rates at central bank meetings later this week. The Chinese yuan fell by the largest

London Gold Market Report

info@bullionvault.com (BullionVault.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:22:27 GMT

Gold Slides from 8-Week High on Fresh Dollar Surge; "Cascading Crises" Loom as World Governments Prepare $2.5 Trillion in Debt WHOLESALE GOLD PRICES fell sharply in Asia and London on Monday, dropping 3.2% from Friday's best weekly close in eight and falling below $791 an ounce. The six-day rally in global stock markets also stalled on a fresh surge in the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Government bond prices jumped on expectations of sharp cuts to Sterling and Euro interest rates later this

Russia: Manufacturing PMI plunges to record low

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 13:20:31 GMT

This morning data showed that Russian manufacturing PMI in November dropped to an all-time low in its 11-year history - see following charts. Hence the index's headline reading fell to 39.8 from 46.4 in October. The sub-indices show a broad-based contraction. New orders are falling fast, output is down and employment down, while stocks of finished goods are rising. The only good news was that the survey indicated that inflationary pressures are abating somewhat with output prices dropping for

Government borrowing to rise sharply

Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk (Lloyds TSB Financial Markets) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 12:59:49 GMT

Borrowing to rise sharply with a stimulus package of £20bn… The Chancellor confirmed in the 2008 Pre-Budget Report (PBR) that the budget deficit is to rise to £118bn next year, or 8% of gdp, a ratio not seen since 1993, and with the sharpest rise in the ratio seen since the 1970s. But the global financial crisis means that the government has little choice but to take debt onto the public sector balance sheet, otherwise the economic slowdown will be even worse and the financial sector could be

China: Plunge in PMIs indicates sharp deceleration

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:55:39 GMT

Both of China's manufacturing PMIs plunged again in November, indicating that industrial activity is currently slowing sharply in China. This is in line with other recent Asian indicators including Friday's industrial production figures from Japan and overnight export figures from South Korea, all of which indicate that the pace of deterioration in industrial activity is likely be extraordinary on a global scale in Q4 08. Details: The development in the Manufacturing PMI from the National

NBH lowers its base rate from 11.50 % to 11.0 %

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:52:17 GMT

Czech Republic The fixed-income market sees only gradual improvement Hungary NBH lowers its base rate from 11.50 % to 11.0 % Poland NBP cuts by 25 bps, while the policy statement was outright dovish Slovakia S&P ups Slovakia’s rating The week ahead Hungary’s foreign trade balance is to only important data on the agenda Overview NBH and NBP surprise with an earlier than expected cuts The National Bank of Hungary and its Polish counterpart undoubtedly surprised us and partly also the markets

December 2008 Calendar − Update

research@sucden.co.uk (Sucden (UK) Limited) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:42:45 GMT

December 2008 Calendar

Daily FX Commentary

tim.clayton@investica.co.uk (Investica Ltd) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:34:31 GMT

Sterling under renewed pressure Sterling found support near 0.84 against the Euro on Friday and took advantage of general Euro weakness with gains to near 0.8250 in US trading. The UK currency was unable to make a fresh challenge on the 1.55 resistance level against the dollar. The latest UK CBI distributive survey recorded a renewed deterioration with a reading of -46 for November from -27 the previous month while retailers were generally pessimistic over near-term prospects. The evidence

Why the Euro Is Set to Fall Further ...

eletter@moneyandmarkets.com (Money and Markets) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:13:17 GMT

Is anyone less thankful this year than last year? It's probably safe to bet on YES. I don't have to run through it all — we've been bludgeoned by all that's bad in the global economy and financial system all year long. And I'm sure there are plenty of individuals out there who aren't quite in the mood to be thankful — turkey on the table or not. Last week I discussed the effect of tight coupling on financial markets. I said when the mechanics of some market or some asset of immense complexity

PMI Manufacturing continue to post record low readings

jessica@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:52:24 GMT

ECONOMIC DATA - (JP) BOJ to hold extraordinary policy meeting on Dec 2nd to discuss flexibility in funding - (IN) India Oct Exports Y/Y: -12.1% v 10.4% prior; Imports Y/Y: 10.6% v 43.3% prior - (GE) Oct Retail Sales M/M: -1.6% v 0.5%e; YoY: -1.5% v -0.3%e - (SW) Swedish Swedbank PMI: 33.1 v 38.0e - (SP) Spain Nov Manufacturing PMI: 29.4 v 34.6 prior; lowest reading on record - (HK) Oct Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 0.3% v 3.4%e; Volume Y/Y: -4.3% v -0.8%e - (SZ) Swiss Nov SVME Purchasing Managers

Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?

nadeem@marketoracle.co.uk (Marketoracle.co.uk) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:47:24 GMT

The mainstream media is increasingly full of stories of either Britain going bankrupt or the coming deflation associated with the recession. Whilst both are now obvious given the economic data and government actions however what is missing from the headlines is that under the weight of the exploding public sector debt mountain, deflation will fast turn towards hyper-inflation as the government literally prints money in ever more panic measures aimed at turning the economy around. Many of the

ISM indices (Nov): declining further

corp-comm@bhf-bank.com (BHF-Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:32:49 GMT

Factory orders (Oct): dropping significantly for the third consecutive month Labour market (Nov): downward trend in payrolls sharply accelerating The ISM manufacturing index fell by 4.6 points to 38.9 in October, its lowest level since the 1982 recession. The most striking feature of the report was the plunge in the export component from 52.0 to a mere 41.0, indicating that trade has ceased to be a strong support for the US economy due to global economic weakness. As the overall new orders

Asian Session - Markets Position for an Uncertain Week

support@ac-markets.com (ACM - Advanced Currency Markets) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:10:21 GMT

Market Brief The Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session, as investors positioned themselves for a data heavy week. In the US, Black Friday's initial sales reports were unconvincing (but slightly on the positive side) and data released this week is expected to show continued deterioration. The EurUsd and UsdJpy came under significant selling pressure on Friday and the trend seems to be continuing in Asia. The EurUsd traded down from 1.2721 to 1.2622, while the UsdJpy traded from 95.60

UK Government Debt to Double, Tax Rises to Follow Tax Cuts

nadeem@marketoracle.co.uk (Marketoracle.co.uk) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 09:45:27 GMT

Alistair Darling's emergency tax cutting budget revealed the true extent of anticipated government borrowing that looks set to take official public sector next debt smashing through £1 trillion, this despite the fact that the official data ignores the £500 billion bailout of the banks. The government also announced fantasy growth forecasts that stated that UK GDP growth would return to trend growth of 2.5% per annum by 2011, this leaves more probable forecast growth rates of 0.6% for 2010 far

Crunch Time for the Dollar This Week!

analyst@fxstreet.com (FXstreet.com Independent Analyst) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 09:36:25 GMT

What a week this one might turn out to be what with economic calendar being full of important economic events and markets being cautious of any decisions regarding the global economic situation! Where should we start? From the speeches by the “dynamic duo” Bernanke and Paulson today, regarding the FED latest policies, which traders will monitor closely for any signs of further cuts in the coming weeks? Or ECB and BOE rate decisions later in the week which may determine the short term direction

Asian equities open mixed following initial US holiday sales results and China's record low PMI data

jessica@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:35:33 GMT

- In terms of Asian economic data, both China and HK's PMI indices fell sharply in Nov as the global economic slowdown starts to impact Asian countries. China's official November PMI figures fell to a new record low of 38.8 v a prior reading of 44.6 and overall the index remained below 50 for the second consecutive month. The economic slowdown is also impacting South Korea as the country's Nov preliminary exports fell by a greater than expected 18.3% y/y, which was the largest drop since Dec

Further rate cuts expected in Europe

forex@fxstreet.com (FXstreet.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:28:37 GMT

This week has been one of the most positive weeks for stock markets which have gone through consecutive sessions of gains following Citigroup's bail out, which has given confidence to investors to think that despite the grim outlook for next year, government aid will help to soften the consequences of the crisis. Next week we have important events scheduled, specially interest rate decisions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, The ECB is expected to slash interest rates by 50

Czech governor signals that a series of rate cuts is unlikely

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:36:40 GMT

Headlines Currencies: CEE currencies calmed down at the end of the week Fixed Income: Czech governor signals that a series of rate cuts is unlikely Currencies Even though the strengthening dollar weighed on sentiment in the Polish FX market on Friday, the Polish zloty managed to work out decent gains last week. The EUR/PLN pair is locked in the new 3.70-3.80 range with global factors likely to remain drivers for trading. As such, the ECB, BoE and Fed rate decisions and the payrolls will be

US Treasuries seem unstoppable

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:31:18 GMT

Markets: Fixed Income On Friday, in a very thinly traded session due to US traders and investors staying mostly at home, global bonds continued their bull-run and ended the session with nice gains. In EMU, yields fell between 3 and 5.5 basis points, the wings slightly outperforming the belly, while in the US, Treasuries dropped between 11 and 6 basis points, the curve ending steeper. In EMU, the eco data were market friendly, HICP inflation dropped to 2.1% Y/Y, way below the 2.4% Y/Y expected

EMU: CPI inflation falls sharply in November

piet.lammens@kbc.be (KBC Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:19:36 GMT

Euro zone CPI showed a sharp plunge in November according to the first estimate. Inflation declined from 3.2% Y/Y to 2.1% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for an outcome of 2.4% Y/Y. These figures confirm the substantial easing in inflation that will continue in the next month and may even lead to some months of negative reading next year. It also increases pressure on the ECB to cut rates by more than 50 basis points. In October, the euro zone unemployment rate came out at 7.7%, while the

Daily Forex Overview

info@dukascopy.com (Dukascopy Swiss FX Group) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 08:18:37 GMT

Previous session overview On Friday, the euro fell to a four-session low against the dollar after data showing a drop in euro-zone inflation forced the European currency to give up much of its gains from earlier in the week. The euro declined nearly one cent to an intraday low of USD1.2620. That was the lowest since USD1.2565 on Nov. 24 and compared with USD1.2707 late Friday in New York. Against the yen it dropped about JPY1.2 to JPY120.16, a level unseen since Nov. 24. The euro later

Gold slips, platinum gains as traders wait rate news

info@thebulliondesk.com (The Bullion Desk) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:54:59 GMT

London, 01 December 2008 - Despite the Euro’s softer finish the precious complex stood its ground Friday with gold gaining around 0.5% while platinum finished 2% higher. Trading volumes were still light however with US traders taking extended Thanksgiving holidays. Volume on COMEX was approximately 50% lower than the previous days while the shortened session on the NYSE saw only 2.74M/shares traded, compared with 5.79M on Wednesday. EUR/USD dipped as low as 1.2643 after data showed Eurozone

ECB: scope for slashing interest rates

corp-comm@bhf-bank.com (BHF-Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:00:04 GMT

German retail sales (October): unchanged German industrial new orders (October): up slightly Germany: Industrial new orders usually follow ifo order book development After plummeting in September, German industrial new orders are likely to have recovered in October, despite the fact that all correlated climate indicators dropped. German retail sales probably remained unchanged in October, as retailers’ business assessment improved and consumer confidence deteriorated. We do not expect any

Fed pledges gigantic bailout programme

corp-comm@bhf-bank.com (BHF-Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:59:18 GMT

Highlights Economic stimulus packages to help mitigate recession ECB set to slash interest rates Dollar unfazed by Fed policy The dollar plummeted temporarily this week; EUR-USD rose over 1.30 for the first time in a month. And dollar bears see a good chance of the greenback’s slide accelerating in the next few weeks. The reason for the dollar’s fall was the US central bank’s surprise announcement that it was buying a further $800bn of assets. Thus monetary policy easing in the US is gaining a

Week of 12/1/2008 thru 12/5/2008

jessica@tradethenews.com (TradeTheNews.com) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:29:22 GMT

Monday, December 01, 2008 Economic 10:00am Nov ISM Manufacturing (last 38.9), Nov ISM Prices Paid (last 37), Oct Construction Spending m/m (last -0.3%), TAF auction. Events 1:30pmFed Chairman Bernanke, Fed's Fisher speaks on economic outlook inAustin. 3:00pm Treasury Sec Paulson to speak on economy and markets inWashington, DC. Merrill Lynch Generics Conference. Trades Ex-dividend: SLB $0.21, AVY $0.41, ELY $0.07, ES $0.025, FIC $0.02. Earnings Before the Open: BE, NRGY. After the Close: LTON,

Easy does it

natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:59:37 GMT

Life isn’t getting any easier for the RBNZ. Each time they have sat down to review interest rates this year, the global credit crisis has been deeper, the outlook for economic growth has deteriorated, and policymakers around the world have become more aggressive in their responses. This Thursday’s OCR decision will be another difficult one, though as in the October review, the case for a sizeable rate cut is a given – the question is more one of tactics. We see a 100bp cut as the most likely

US Dollar Gains, But Fails to Recoup Week's Losses - US ISM Reports, NFPs Bound to Shake Things Up

info@fxcm.com (FXCM) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:01:14 GMT

- Euro Outlook Hinges Upon Key European Central Bank Rate Decision on December 4 - British Pound Under Pressure as Markets Forecast 100bp Cut by the Bank of England Next Week US Dollar Gains, But Fails to Recoup Week’s Losses - US ISM Reports, NFPs Bound to Shake Things Up The US dollar generally ended the week lower across the majors, but lacked the momentum to yield the breakouts expected amidst the low volume trading typical of US market holidays. On Friday during the European trading

Quieter holiday-thin markets despite the political turbulence in Thailand and Mumbai

Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:03:50 GMT

Overview Quieter holiday-thin markets despite the political turbulence in Thailand and Mumbai. Stock indices have bounced from last week’s lows and most are now trading just above October’s lows, percentage gains over the week impressive as we start from very low bases, Asian ones lagging behind. Volatility has eased a little, but by historical standards remains terribly high for a whole raft of instruments. The rush into Treasuries continues, many yields tumbling to post WWII lows, and curves

UK GfK consumer confidence rose 1 point to -35 in November

natalie_denne@westpac.co.nz (Westpac Institutional Bank) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:38:09 GMT

News and views Bullish US equity markets during a shortened-Friday session (Dow up 1.2%) were outweighed by negative European data (Eurozone inflation lower than expected at 2.1% November yoy, and unemployment higher than expected at 7.7%) for a net bearish effect on non-USD currencies. The highlight of this week will clearly be the central bank monetary policy decisions, with rate cuts expected in New Zealand, Australia, Eurozone, and the UK. After a very quiet NZ session on Friday, the EUR

FX Levels for Today December 1, 2008

abdul.khan@tricom.com.au (Top Trader Thinking) — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 03:40:36 GMT

Overview The new month and week will see the USD regain some of last week's gains, but this just gives us a better opportunity to short it. The Dollar Index futures contract is trading around 85.60 currently, a break under 84.50 would give us confirmation. Today, the EUR cold extend its softness to the low 1.2500 area, while the AUD is good buying in the mid 0.6300's. I think starting over the Xmas/NewYear break, we'll see the EUR lead the recovery. The holiday period tends to see light

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

info@gcitrading.com (GCI) — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:10:12 GMT

EURO The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2700 figure and was capped around $1.2955 level. The common currency came off after data revealed the eurozone economy shrank q/q in Q2, the first decline since 1995. November EMU-15 inflation printed at an annualized 2.1%, down from 3.2% in October, while October unemployment printed at 7.7%. Many traders expect the European Central Bank will implement at least a

The Trading Week: Nov. 30 - Dec. 5

trader@allthingsforex.com (AllThingsForex) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:44:05 GMT

Nov. 28, 2008 (Allthingsforex.com) – The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and four interest rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank promise to deliver an interesting beginning of the last trading month of the year. In preparation for the new trading week, here is a quick look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to. Sunday, Nov. 30 will start the trading

Citigroup and automakers flourish in thin post-holiday trading

info@interactivebrokers.com (Interactive Brokers LLC) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:36:07 GMT

Today's tickers: C, GM, F, CHK, GE, CSCO & AEM C – Citigroup Inc. – There appears to be greater sense of confidence these days about the survival of Citigroup now that the government has ring-fenced more than $300 billion of its toxic mortgage debt. Shares jumped 11.4% to $7.82 and option traders kept it the most active equity option contract in light trading on Friday. December call option buyers favored both 7.5 and 10.0 strikes. Meanwhile trading in the January 7.5 strike puts was

The Russian central bank treads a dangerous path

danskeresearch@danskebank.com (Danske Bank A/S) — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 16:32:29 GMT

Recently there has been a lot of debate in the media about possible rouble devaluation. Anticipation of a weaker rouble is connected to lower oil prices (which is weakening Russia's external balances), worries over Russia's large external debt levels, and greater political risk after the Caucasus crisis. So far the rouble has been remarkably stable in 2008. Against its dual currency basket (55% USD and 45% EUR) it has only dropped roughly 4.5% this year - see chart one. Further, the rouble has